How Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine Has Changed The World For European Nations

Watchers of geopolitics and international relations are taking note of the new learning lessons from the war in Ukraine. While there is much to absorb and assess for everyone, Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine and the responses from the West has thrown open new questions of hard power and normative power in international relations, and more particularly in the Euro-Atlantic theatre.

No World for Normative Power

AFP

After the end of Cold War, the European Union (EU) took shape, and its relevance grew in the management of the politics and economics of Europe and its engagement with the world. The EU became a prime example in regional integration and cooperation, and something to aspire for, in all regions of the world. In the perennial quest to prevent wars, it seemed Europe had found the answer through its ingenious political and economic union.

Through the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Europe outsourced its security to the United States. However, if economic recession and refugee crisis rattled the EU¡¯s economic and political unison, the Ukraine war has unsettled how Europe reimagines its ability to secure itself and temper its expectations from the United States.

President Donald Trump was often seen as voice of the fissures between Washington and its European NATO partners. Nevertheless, the call for security burden sharing and for Europe to do more for its own security vis-¨¤-vis Russia, has been a running theme of US-NATO relationship predates Trump.

Even as the Ukraine war brings the NATO partners together than even before, the question of Europe¡¯s curious relationship with hard military power has risen to the brim and the EU¡¯s reliance on normative power, if not dashed, has come under critical scrutiny. The subtle but sure shift in European thinking and recognition of self-help in defence preparedness and military readiness is being witnessed.

The European Union and European countries in general had shifted their focus on assuming a leadership role on non-military issues. Even as the Syrian conflict led to an influx of refugees, it was still the repercussions of a war distant from European mainland. However, the Ukraine war digs up issues of European security in a way, unlike anything since the end of the Cold War.

If You Want Peace, Prepare for War

Reuters

Did Europeans take peace for granted? Can security be outsourced to an alliance like the NATO, or a partner like the United States? Yes, Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine, has glued the NATO partners, at a time when its relevance and strategic rationale was being questioned.

However, the Ukraine war has also led to a rethinking of self-reliance in defence and security among major European powers, besides greater burden sharing within the NATO alliance. During the Trump administration, the US National Security Strategy, the National Defence Strategy, and the National Military Strategy shifted America¡¯s strategic threats from violent non-state actors to strategic competition with near peer competitors like China and Russia.

This heralded the beginning of a new era of great power competition, and a shift from the focus on global war on terrorism. The withdrawal from Afghanistan, the confrontation over Taiwan, and now an actual violent war in Ukraine, has cemented this flux in the global strategic dimension.

The war has led to a wake-up call for Europe in a multitude of dimensions including military, economics, energy dependence, cyber security, and nuclear deterrence. No doubt, Europe will be at the centre of any new Cold War, not a benchwarmer or mute spectator that could do, by just sermonising on normative power. Europe will at the heart of the cause, dynamics, and consequence of any Cold War 2.0 or 3.0.

A New Global Order

AP

Will the Ukraine war lead to a change in the character of the EU, and a rejuvenated push to the common security and defence policy of the EU, or rather a more nationalistic turn towards self-reliance in defence and security, besides liaising with the NATO on security matters, and with the EU on non-military matters? What is the post-cold war security order in Europe, has the Ukraine war shaken it, were there ominous signs of this coming, and how could the stakeholders have prevented it? How will perceptions and misperceptions of security in the Euro-Atlantic theatre, impact the strategic dynamics of the Indo-Pacific theatre? Already there are projections of winners and losers of the Ukraine war, not just on the battlefield, but on the strategic landscape, where China is a major factor. How will Europeans see the future of NATO and the United States as a security guarantor? Will the Europeans call for a European Union more accommodative of hard power? Will the United States navigate its European partners taking up a more active role vis-¨¤-vis Russia, and devote its attention and resources to counteracting China¡¯s aggression in the Indo-Pacific?

Where does this leave America¡¯s Quad partners, including India, in their strategic orientation and direction? The answers to these questions could well shape the new global order.

The Author currently teaches at the Amity Institute of International Studies (AIIS), Amity University, Noida. He is a regular commentator on international affairs and India¡¯s foreign policy. The views expressed in the article are author's own.