3rd Wave: Virus Outbreak To 'Worsen' In August, Say Researchers Who Rightly Predicted 2nd Wave

Amid concerns about the rising R-value, rate of vaccination, and easing of lockdown norms, the third wave has arrived at the doorstep of India, as per a report by Bloomberg.

The third wave of coronavirus is likely to hit India in the month of August and the daily infections are likely to clock between one lakh to 1.5 lakh, according to a study conducted by IIT researchers. Previously, the researchers had accurately predicted the severe second wave in April-May in which thousands of people lost their lives.

Reuters

Nearly 1,50,00 in the worst scenario in October

A study by a group of researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively have predicted that India may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking with less than 1,00,000 infections a day, in the best-case scenario, or nearly 1,50,00 in the worst scenario in October.

¡°Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days. As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed," Vidyasagar told Bloomberg by email.

PTI

'Smaller' than the second wave

They have, however, pointed out that the third wave is likely to be 'smaller' than the second wave, which peaked at a record 4,00,000-plus daily cases on 7 May, owing to the high levels of natural immunity. A national antibody survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research study last month had found that two-thirds of Indians above the age of six had been exposed to the coronavirus.

States may "skew" the case count

Meanwhile, the researchers said that states reporting a high number of COVID-19 cases like Kerala and Maharashtra may play a significant role in "skewing" the case count during the third wave. But even then, physical distancing, wearing masks, hand hygiene, and avoiding long periods indoors in poorly ventilated, busy places can still keep the virus at bay, as per the emergencies director of World Health Organisation (WHO) Michael Ryan.

According to doctors problems of the first wave were not the problems of the second wave and the problems of the second wave may not surface in the third wave, as per ET, indicating that there is absolutely no scope for complacency.

BCCL

These predictions and suggestions come in the wake of several states, including Maharashtra and Karnataka, easing lockdown norms; pictures of crowded tourist destinations surfacing on social media, reports of only 7.6 percent population being vaccinated in India and the coronavirus delta variant being declared as contagious as chickenpox.

India's COVID situation

India reported 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths on Sunday even as the Centre cautioned 10 states, including Kerala, Maharashtra and northeastern regions, amid the rising infections and asked them to take steps to arrest the spread of the coronavirus.

delhi covid containment

Experts have also warned that the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which spreads as easily as chickenpox and can be passed on by vaccinated people, can fuel the surge. According to data from the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), nearly 8 of every 10 Covid-19 cases in May, June and July were caused by the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus.