Delhi¡¯s Dilemma in BRICS+6

The 15th summit of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) heralded a new rebooting in the quest for a new world order. The BRICS¡¯ invitation to six countries, namely Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the grouping as full members from 1 January 2024 is a new chapter being written amidst the crisis of multilateralism and growing great power rivalry between the United States and China.

Moreover, the joint statement released at the Johannesburg summit also tasked the member countries¡¯ ¡°Foreign Ministers to further develop the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries and report by the next Summit.¡± As the world debates new equation of the global North and South, New Delhi should position itself as a voice of reason and help maintain the true calling of BRICS as a forum of South-South cooperation for common prosperity and not an anti-West bloc.

Twitter

The BRICS grouping and the new expansion should not be allowed to become a new medium for Beijing in its aggressive push for power and influence vis-¨¤-vis the United States.

BRICS and the Geopolitical Churning

BRICS took birth at a moment in global politics, when the unwarranted influence of the West on financial decision-making became glaring, and non-representative of 21st century realities. Therefore, when emerging economies from different regions of the world came together in a politically heterogeneous and loose grouping like the BRICS, it became a face not only of the interest of its member countries but quickly developed into a potent story of the rise of a non-Western narrative in global finance and politics.

The need for BRICS was also highly propelled by the impressive growths witnessed in countries like China and India in Asia, and a shift of the centre of power from the West to the East. Moreover, with a severe economic crisis hitting the United States in particular and Europe too starting in 2008, groups like the BRICS as well as G20 gained a new currency and relevance.

However, the rise of BRICS also came a time when China, the largest economy within the grouping, started exhibiting an aggressive push for influence and a new strategic relationship was blossoming between New Delhi and Washington. The strategic contest between the United States and China grew more intense and comprehensive, while the India-China economic interdependence and sporadic moments of camaraderie failed to overcome differences that are more fundamental. As concerns rise regarding China¡¯s ability to wield asymmetrical influence within the BRICS, how will New Delhi navigate?

New Bricks for a Chinese Wall in BRICS?

China possesses more material capabilities compared to any other member within the BRICS and its aggressive push for a global status commensurate to the United States is palpable. To what extent this dynamic will translate into Beijing finding means to promote its own interests within a multilateral grouping remained the question.

Expanding BRICS¡¯ membership was largely seen as China¡¯s agenda for expanding its influence within the grouping. Although the fears of BRICS taking an anti-West curve, might be only a fear and a bit of an exaggeration at this stage, the dilemma for New Delhi is quite apparent and the task is formidable. In matters of security and the drive for a rules based order in the Indo-Pacific region, India¡¯s growing alignment with the United States in particular, and the West in general, is discernible and evident. Although New Delhi, on principle and at face value, does maintain significant ties with all major power poles and with all the new entrants to the BRICS, the multi-alignment is facing rough weathers.

AFP

India¡¯s core membership of the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad) and growing bilateral engagement with all the member countries as well its growing closeness to the G7 grouping are not spur of the moment reactions. These are strategic responses to a geopolitical, geo-economic and technological transition that New Delhi can hardly ignore. The United States has its own axe to grind with countries like Russia or an Iran, which is one of the new members joining BRICS. New Delhi does not and need not identify with such America-centric threat perceptions.

However, Beijing¡¯s capability and intention to influence the grouping to the detriment of India¡¯s interest as well as the core purpose of BRICS is something that New Delhi needs to keep a watch on and navigate adroitly.

Meanwhile, India¡¯s presidency of the G20 has been a significant one, and it should be used to promote a more inclusive and consensual multilateralism in a multipolar world. India has the challenge as well as an opportunity to save the BRICS from falling into yet another trap of ¡°Us vs Them¡± mentality and a self-fulfilling prophecy prevalent in the West as well, that all great power rivalries need to end in conflict and confrontation.

* The Author is a Strategic Analyst based in India and the Honorary Director of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). He is a regular commentator on International Affairs and India¡¯s Foreign Policy.