And Here Begins The Race To The White House

On Monday, the U.S. presidential race technically commences with the Iowa Republican Caucus kick starting the process of finding the nominee in each party, eventually leading to the Republican and Democratic Party¡¯s national conventions in July and August respectively. From thereon, the race for the White House narrows down to the nominees of the two parties until the decisive election in November.

Mostly fought and won on domestic issues, the result of the U.S. presidential election nevertheless has a global impact. Strategists and policymakers across the world will keenly watch how Americans, highly polarised along political and social lines, vote. The images of the insurrection on January 6, 2021 when hardline supporters of the losing incumbent Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol are still fresh. Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk-consulting firm, in its annual forecast ranked this election as one of the foremost global risks, with repercussions anticipated in the global security and economic environment.

Flavour of the Season

Joe Biden | Photo: AP

The menu of this election is not too different from previous ones, although like every four years, the socio-economic and political milieu inside the Unite States and the geopolitical environment abroad is rapidly shifting. The economy undoubtedly tops the list of concerns for American voters. Irrespective of the finer nuances and complicated numbers of the American economy, opinion polls seem to project an American public pessimistic of the economic future, with many feeling dissatisfied with inflation and expressing fear that AI will replace American jobs. Issues such as immigration and the security of America¡¯s southern borders, abortion rights, law enforcement and racial justice, healthcare and social security benefits will be critical points of intra-party and inter-party debates.

While Trump was absent from the Iowa debate between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, he appeared in a separate Fox News¡¯ townhall and asserted, ¡°We are going to have the largest deportation effort in the history of our country. We're bringing everybody back to where they came from. We have no choice.¡± With a probable Biden vs Trump rematch on the cards, climate change and transition to greener economy will take centre-stage, given Trump¡¯s record of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. U.S. responses to foreign wars in Europe and West Asia will be major foreign policy issues dominating the primary and presidential debates. While there seems to be a bipartisan approach to dealing with the China challenge, there will be verbal fights on who exactly will be the stronger candidate vis-¨¤-vis assertive China.

High Uncertainty and High Consequence

From here on, candidates will become more hyperbolic in asserting their best plans to saving American democracy at home, and American leadership abroad. Vicious political advertisements targeting each other¡¯s¡¯ records and promises will hit all forms of media. While most pundits could put their bets on a Biden vs Trump rematch, but the primaries can throw up upsets and challenges. Trump is way ahead of other Republican candidates in opinion polls, despite his legal troubles. The states of Maine and Colorado have already passed decisions to debar him from their primaries. A call for ¡®anti-woke¡¯ movement is filling the air in Republican debates, despite every candidate carrying their own battle plans. The two closest rivals to a Trump nomination are tailoring their speaking points close to Trump¡¯s ¡®Make America Great Again (MAGA)¡¯ sloganeering, with hopes of gaining support from the Republican base.

A campaign sign of Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump is seen ahead of the Iowa caucus vote, in Newton | Photo: Reuters

On the Democratic side, there does not seem to be anyone coming close to incumbent President Joe Biden, despite him facing criticism from inside the party, for his old age. In tightly fought elections, such that of 2000 between Al Gore and George W. Bush or that of 2016 between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, third party candidates like Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein affected the result. To what extent candidates outside the two-party system will impact the 2024 result, remains to be seen.

Regardless of who emerges victorious, this election does not seem to offer much hope and enthusiasm for American voters. While Donald Trump¡¯s candidature might still excite the Republican base, his disruptive four years of presidency and current criminal indictments do not make him an aspirational figure. On the other hand, Biden¡¯s four-year record, his advancing age and reports of ill health is not a cause of bright national mood either.

The fault-lines of American society and politics are not new and neither are the battle lines between the federal and state governments. The health of American democracy is on ventilator, even as American governmental and non-governmental bodies pass judgments on elections and democracies outside. Both parties vying for the top seat in American power, project themselves as knights in shining armours, defending the American way of life. As always, America¡¯s election is going to be fought on issues that are deeply domestic, but the result of this election has always had consequences far beyond its borders.