Omicron-Led Third Wave May Peak by Jan-end With Daily Cases Touching 10 Lakh: Study
The Omicron-triggered third wave of Covid-19 in India may peak in January-end and February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh, a new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted.
The study, based on Omicron transmissibility rates, was conducted by Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan and team from Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru.
It says that the peak of the third coronavirus wave in India could be in January last week having its impact in February first week for the country. It, however, adds that different states will have different peaks.
Prediction for Delhi, TN
The peak of the third wave for different states will vary from mid-January to mid-February. The Covid-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning, it added.
For Delhi, the model says, the peak could be by mid-January or the third week and for Tamil Nadu it will be in the last week of January or the first week of February, depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus.
How did the study reach this conclusion??
The model takes into consideration past infection, vaccination and waning immunity, leaving either 30 per cent, 60 per cent or 100 per cent of the population susceptible. Past infection and vaccination leaves a fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant.
Depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus, the daily cases in India could be around 3 lakh, 6 lakh or 10 lakh during the peak.
The researchers then used the trajectory followed by the variant in South Africa.The peak would be reached between the third and fourth week of January, depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus. Similarly, the surge would subside by the beginning of March to the end of March depending on the number of susceptible people.
Similar study by IIT-K
A similar study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur has projected that the third wave of Covid-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3.
India has been witnessing a sudden outburst of coronavirus infections with daily cases going up by five times since December 31, and the active caseload increasing by three times in the last seven days. The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare data analysed by News18 shows that cases of the Omicron variant have also doubled since December 31.
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