The Curious Case Of COVID Numbers In Bihar And How It Played A Role In Elections

Bihar elections are the first in India after months of COVID-19 pandemic. While India has greatly returned to normalcy, the months that went by shook the common man and industries alike. In retrospect, the sudden lockdown looked poorly planned and executed.

The pandemic at many levels exposed the inefficiency of public administration. As a result, the state of Bihar seemed to suffer a double blow -- COVID outbreak and an instant consequence in the face of polls.

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COVID cases

The novel coronavirus was surprisingly showing an impressive decline in Bihar even as political rallies and meetings dew huge crowds in the poll-bound state. In contrast to the alarming predictions of a possible spurt in COVID-19 cases during election campaign, made months ago, the state on November 2 reported that it has just over 7,400 active cases, with only 10 per cent hospital beds occupied. Currently, the total cases stand at a little over 2,23,000 with over 2,15,000 recovered and almost 1,200 deaths.

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Bihar has claimed an astounding Covid testing record of 1.5 lakh samples a day ¨C much more than most other states.

Relying on rapid tests

The state relied almost exclusively on rapid antigen tests (RAT) that don¡¯t necessarily require full-fledged laboratories or trained technicians, but can be misleading in terms of throwing up false negatives.

On September 21, testing peaked at 1.9 lakh in the state, a figure cited by CM Nitish Kumar while summarising how his government had scaled up its response to the pandemic. This is in sharp contrast to about a couple of months ago, when Bihar had the lowest testing rate among all states.

The flip side of the health department data is that less than 7% of the samples are being tested using the gold-standard RT-PCR method to confirm an infection. TrueNat, another confirmatory method where the sample preparation is automated to give a faster result, accounts for even fewer tests.

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Free vaccine promise

The BJP¡¯s promises of free COVID-19 vaccines to poll-bound Bihar had found itself mired in a controversy. Offering a life-saving vaccine to an election-state had raised eyebrows and triggered allegations of a political twist to the entire issue.

This even as the procurement and the distribution process of the vaccine has not been elaborately laid down for the states and it is being expected that the Centre will procure the vaccine at a price negotiated by it and then it¡¯d be on the states to buy as per their needs.

BJP¡¯s manifesto promises free Covid vaccine. Like all programs, center will provide vaccines to states at a nominal rate. It is for the state Govts to decide if they want to give it free or otherwise. Health being a state subject, Bihar BJP has decided to give it free. Simple.

¡ª Amit Malviya (@amitmalviya) October 22, 2020

Unemployment crisis

On September 27, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who is also heading the grand alliance, promised 10 lakh jobs to the youth reeling under the unemployment crisis induced by COVID lockdown. Tejashwi told a media conference announcing how this was going to be his party¡¯s main poll campaign theme this time, "This is not an empty promise to lure voters but my commitment. If the RJD is voted to power, a decision about filling up 10 lakh posts lying vacant in various government departments will be taken in the very first meeting of the Cabinet."

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The announcement, though, welcomed by masses was strongly criticised by the opposition and the ruling NDA.

Interestingly, almost a month later on October 22, the BJP, which initially questioned the opposition¡¯s job offer had itself promised to provide 19 lakh jobs to the youth if voted to power. The party made this announcement in its election manifesto released by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.