Aliens Will Not Make Any Contact With Humankind For 400,000 Years, Claims Study

If you are someone who is into conspiracy theories and believe in extraterrestrial creatures, we may have bad news for you. According to recent research, aliens may not contact humans for over 400,000 years.

That's according to some new research into Communicating Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilizations (CETIs). The paper is written by authors Wenjie Song and He Gao, both from the Department of Astronomy at Beijing Normal University.

The paper deals with two parameters: firstly, how many terrestrial planets are habitable and how often life on these planets evolves into a CETI, and secondly at which stage of a host star's evolution a CETI may be born.

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The authors used several different modelling scenarios. Based on those parameters the researchers arrived at an optimistic and pessimistic forecast for how long it would take for such civilisations to make contact with humankind.

According to the optimistic scenario, a star had to be at least 25 per cent into its lifetime before a CETI can emerge and for each of the life-supporting planets in its solar system, there was a 0.1 per cent chance of a CETI appearing.

This scenario created 42,000 CETIs in the Milky Way. This then concluded that humans would have to wait around 2,000 years to establish contact with aliens.

Now, according to the pessimistic scenario, a star needed to be at least 75 per cent into its lifetime before a CETI can emerge and for each terrestrial planet, there was only a 0.001 per cent chance of a CETI appearing.

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This scenario created just 111 CETIs in Earth's galaxy. So, basically, it would take aliens another 400,000 years to communicate with humans.

This study which was published in The Astrophysical Journal, argues that humans may never communicate with aliens - particularly in the pessimistic scenario - because factors like population issues, nuclear annihilation, sudden climate change, rogue comets and ecological changes could lead to humanity's extinction before 400,000 years elapse.

One previous study, published in 2020 by researchers at the University of Nottingham, estimated there are likely to be 36 Communicating Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilisations (CETIs) in the Milky Way.

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The paper stated that '[T]he subject of extraterrestrial intelligent and communicative civilisations will remain entirely in the domain of hypothesis until any positive detection is made'.

H/T: The Number of Possible CETIs within Our Galaxy and the Communication Probability among These CETIs"

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