The year 2022 for China?started with the Winter Olympics in Beijing, and then Covid flare-up and lockdowns in spring followed by relaxation and reopening, later this year. The 20th party congress charted out?China's blueprint in politics, economy and society, pledging continuous reform and opening up.?China for the first time in 60 years has the reduction of population and also the GDP number is three. Discussing what the future holds for China, are the panelists?Kevin Rudd,?President and CEO of Asia Society,?Wong Jie-ming, the Vice Chairman of State-Owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission,?Nicolas Aguzin, CEO of Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing, Guccio,?Jan Sun, CEO of Strip.com and Marcos Troijo, President of New Development Bank.?
Talking about Chinese economy, Kevin Rudd said, "For the economy, then China obviously had no choice. Zero COVID was not working for China's growth numbers. The 2022 growth numbers were at best 3%, possibly less. And we do expect now a bounce back. The official numbers are probably around five. We've seen the provincial numbers being projected around five. I think this will be turbocharged by consumer demand."
He said China has got?trillion dollars' worth of savings by Chinese consumers accumulated over the last couple of years, which will be writ large in Chinese domestic consumption and international private consumption. In a world where growth will be challenged, with Europe facing recessionary challenges, the United States question mark in terms of how soft or hard the landing will be.?If China produces a solid growth number for 2023, five or five plus, that will actually underpin much global growth for the year to come.
Wong Jie-ming said, "We still believe that the opening of the post-epidemic era will definitely benefit China's economy. But I think it will not only benefit China's economy, but also benefit the world's economy.?Our epidemic policy has been based on ensuring the safety of the people. This is the direction we are moving in. Of course, we have also been making improvements after the change in the situation. Next, we should say that as our policy is fully implemented, the production and the order of life are constantly normal."??
He continued, "It is beneficial for our Chinese and foreign companies to build a stable supply chain worldwide. It is also beneficial for us to develop high-level technology. It is also beneficial for us to continue to build or improve the order of fair and just. Of course, it is also beneficial for us to use China's large-scale market to achieve mutual benefit and cooperation between companies. Of course, open-ended cooperation is a double-edged sword. China is certainly pushing open-ended cooperation with great force. But we also hope that in this process, the two countries will be equal. Only equal, only open-ended cooperation in all aspects can promote our cooperation and continue to stabilize and achieve mutual benefits."
Marcos Troijo said, "Perhaps the single most important obstacle for China is the temptation to shy away from globalization. And this is something that China should avoid. The most dramatic example of economic rise we've had over the past 40-plus years has been that of China. China accomplished that by engaging more with the world, by opening its borders, by keeping an intense flow of trade and investment. But now globalization itself is shifting."
He said in 2022, if you take account of the GDP numbers by purchasing power parity terms, the E7 is already about 20% bigger than the G7. The E7 being the seven biggest emerging economies of the world. And you might think that is only happening because of the relative size of China, but if you take China away from the equation of the emerging economies, and you take, of course, the United States out of the G7, the E6 is bigger than the G7. So doing more trade, doing more investment, being there for emerging economies is a way for recovery to be sustainable over time.
Second thing, there's a new generation of trade agreements out there. It's no longer only about tariffs and quota, but it's also about standards, about parameters. China has to be there as a shaper of those trade agreements in the future. Third driver is a talent-intensive economy. The good thing about having borders open, more exchange with the rest of the world, is that these flows of talents can keep pouring into China and vice versa. And fourth driver is more and more marriage between physical and tech-intensive infrastructure. China can also lead the way in that particular regard to ensure long-term growth.?