Chetan Bhagat Writes On Why It¡¯s Time To Celebrate No Matter Who Wins Delhi

By the time this column comes out, Delhiites would have already voted in their small but big state election, and now anxiously await the results. The election is small because Delhi is a tiny state with just 70 out of the over 4,200 assembly constituencies in the country. It is big because the results in this election have a huge signalling effect around the nation, and may well drive the narrative of Indian politics in times to come. The AAP vs BJP battle is a tough one, with no clear trends so far on who will win. The purpose of this piece is not to take sides, because frankly, it is not easy to take sides. There are pros and cons to each party, and at best this article hopes to list the consequences of either an AAP or a BJP victory.

Hence, rather than make you choose between them, this article may well make you more confused. However, politics is grey (yes, even AAP is grey now), and usually choices are between different shades of grey. Based on your internal value system, going through the pros and cons of each may have some utility in helping you choose your shade.

If the BJP wins, here are the pros. One, it keeps the Centre and state relationship strong which, in turn, can benefit Delhi. Two, it incentivizes political parties to bring in credible outsiders like Kiran Bedi. If Kiran loses, there is little chance of parties allowing high-profile lateral entries of talented people later on. Three, it keeps the politically stable India story intact.

However, the BJP coming to power also has many cons. One, the party gets more smug. All that the BJP needs to do but hasn¡¯t done (Lokpal for instance) will be further delayed. Two, a BJP victory will be a blow to AAP. Although AAP in opposition will also play a major role, and I do think eventually its turn will come in Delhi, a BJP victory may hurt AAP and, in turn, new-age politics to a certain extent.

If AAP were to win, here are the pros. The first is that it will check the risk of a growing BJP arrogance, which includes beliefs like ¡°we can never lose¡±. Two, AAP¡¯s focus on graft may perhaps lead to lesser corruption at the lower levels, which is what pinches a lot of people. Higher-level graft is another story altogether, and fixing it is easier said than done. Three, AAP¡¯s victory allows us to test out a new alternative, just in case people feel its last attempt was not a real one.

However, there are some cons to an AAP victory as well. One, they have an over-righteous and over-promised agenda, something that is extremely unlikely to be fulfilled. There is just not enough money for the kind of subsidies and tax reductions AAP talks about. Concepts like mohalla sabha are cute on paper but highly impractical in reality. (Been to any apartment society meeting lately? Ever seen consensus there?) The second con of having AAP is a lack of governance experience ¡ª with demonstrated ineptitude in their last abandoned stint ¡ª and an inability to hold party members together, given the high number of high-profile rebels. There is also a conflict of interest ¡ª the party¡¯s desire to remain in the news to further its brand creates a constant tendency to stir things up. Three, there is a double standard in dealing with the faults of others vs their own. Allegations against others are convictions. Allegations against themselves are opposition conspiracies. Nobody can be as righteous as AAP claims to be. Frankly, despite the claims, recent events have shown they are just as shrewd in their political moves as the rest of them. Four, an AAP victory means the Modi wave is broken and reduces the BJP¡¯s dominance. This isn¡¯t a con as such, but it does send a signal of lack of political stability and will slow down foreign investment and BJP¡¯s pace of reforms, especially since AAP represents the socialist plank.

There you have it. Each outcome has a bundle of pros and cons. Whatever the result, Delhi and India will have to live with the consequences.

Still, we must remember how dismissive the Congress ¡ª then in power at the Centre and in Delhi ¡ª had been of the people who sat on dharna at Jantar Mantar a few years ago. Today, one thing is for sure. The Congress has no chance of winning Delhi. And one of those who sat on the streets at Jantar Mantar will now be the CM of Delhi. This is reason enough for Delhiites, or rather all Indians to celebrate. For no matter what happens on February 10, Delhi and India are going to win.